Risk Factors Selection, Criteria Assessment, and Final Weighting for the Canadian Food Inspection Agency’s Establishment-Based Risk Assessment Model

Introduction:  The Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) is developing a risk-based assessment model to quantify the risk associated with food establishments. As part of its development, 155 risk factors were initially identified and their significance assessed through an expert elicitation in 2013.

Purpose:  To further discriminate risk factors to be included in the model, a refinement process was performed. Also, a second expert elicitation was held in 2014 to assign a weight, based on their relative risk to human health, to estimate the risk associated with specific clusters, and to validate the final list of factors.

Methods: For the refinement process, the availability of data sources and the clarity and measurability of the selected factors were considered. Those that were lower-rated during the expert elicitation were eliminated; the remaining were grouped, based on their focus of attention (clusters). Assessment criteria were, then, defined for each risk factor to allow their individual quantification within the model, and, collectively, presented to experts during a two-round Delphi exercise for their assessment.

Results: Twenty-nine Canadian experts participated in the elicitation, and a very good consensus on the weighting was obtained for most risk factors and clusters. All experts scored the risk factors as significantly affecting the risk related to a food establishment, and none of them expressed formal opposition to their inclusion or to the way they were clustered in the model.

Significance: As a result of this work, the median values assigned to each criterion used to assess the risk factors and clusters will be included in the new CFIA risk assessment model, which will be further implemented as part of the regulatory oversight activities of the Agency.