Burden of Disease of Barbecued Meat: Who Is at Risk?

Introduction:  Consumption of meat, prepared by barbecuing, is associated with risk of colorectal cancer, due to formation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH). In Denmark, the population is advised to limit consumption of barbecued meat; and, when barbecuing, to avoid charred meat. This advice is based on conservative, semi-quantitative estimates that do not take the variability of consumption patterns into account.

Purpose:  We aimed to estimate the disease burden due to barbecuing, in the Danish population, using disability adjusted life years (DALY), as well as the annual number of barbecued meals needed to reach an exposure that is considered a health concern.

Methods:  We applied a probabilistic risk assessment model, taking into account the variability of exposure patterns and of human sensitivity to the hazard, as well as the uncertainty in the exposure and dose-response data.

Results:   Preliminary results suggested that PAH exposure through barbecuing caused 2.23x10^-7 cases of colorectal cancer per 100,000 inhabitants and a disease burden of 0.0004 DALY per 100,000 inhabitants per year in Denmark. Our results also showed that only extreme cases of consumption and contamination resulted in a health risk. These results highlighted the importance of deriving estimates, at the individual level, to be able to deliver advice on the health effects associated with different frequencies of barbecuing.

Significance: We proposed a probabilistic method to quantitatively estimate the disease burden and individual risk of barbecuing, taking into account the variation in the population. This approach is useful to directly advising individuals to adjust behavior to optimize health and, also, with regard to risk factors other than barbecuing.