Purpose: This study was performed to predict the growth probabilities and enterotoxin production for the S. aureus in SDF and to provide the risk management options using Monte Carlo simulation.
Methods: The risk model deals with the consumer’s practice on the storage and cooking before consumption. Data on the prevalence and concentration of S. aureus, time/temperature of storage and ratio of cooking before consumption were collected and were used to build risk model using @Risk program. Survivals of S. aureus on the SDF were estimated using secondary survival model developed to predict cell number during storage. The correlation between toxin level and cell number was used to quantify the probability of staphylococcus food poisoning.
Results: As a result of Monte Carlo simulation, contamination of S. aureus in SDF at consumption step was lower than 1.8 log CFU/g for 99th percentile value. The simulated level was lower than the threshold cell number use in this study for toxin production (5 log CFU/g). The estimated probability for staphylococcal intoxication was very low, using currently available data. Simulation result was also showed that survival of S. aureus in SDF during storage was affected by storage temperature.
Significance: The risk model developed in this study based on consumer’s practice, survival model and toxin production model for S. aureus could be used to predict the risk of staphylococcal intoxication through consumption of ready-to-eat foods as well as SDF in Korea.