Modeling the Impact of Climatic Variables on Vibrio parahaemolyticus Outbreaks in Taiwan (2000-2011)

Introduction: Climate change is increasingly receiving attention on its potential for bacterial contamination of food and water, which consequently may result in a change of risks related to water- and foodborne infection diseases. However, the quantification on direct consequences of climate change on food poisoning has received less attention. In Taiwan, Vibrio parahaemolyticushas been the major threat of food poisoning over the past ten years; moreover, there seems to be an increasing trend in outbreak cases.

Purpose: This study aims to investigate and quantify the relationship between climate variation and incidences of V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan.

Methods: Time periods for analysis were from 2000 to 2011. The climatic variables data of temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and V. parahaemolyticus incidences were collected from government organizations, including Department of Health and Center Weather Bureau etc. This study applied time series analysis to develop a model to predict the dynamics of V. parahaemolyticusincidences by EViews software.

Results: Results indicated that monthly average maximum temperature, monthly relative humidity and monthly average rainfall have significant impacts on V. parahaemolyticus outbreaks during the period of 2000 to 2011. The level of model fit is over 60% and the probability of F-statistic shows significance. Among climatic variables, the monthly average maximum temperature has the greatest influence on V. parahaemolyticusoutbreaks.

Significance: The findings offer a novel view of quantitative relationship between climate change and food poisoning of V. parahaemolyticus. Moreover, our results suggest that it is necessary to develop an early warning system based on the climatic variation information for disease control management.