Purpose: The purpose of this study was to identify opportunities for strategic investments and initiatives to reduce risk by better understanding the potential impact of key aspects, specifically the speed of intervention strategies (e.g., a recall, advisory, or warning) and the compliance of both consumers and retailers with interventions.
Methods: Through collaboration with the National Center for Food Protection and Defense (NCFPD) and the Department of Homeland Security Office of Health Affairs (OHA), the universe of food scenarios was condensed to combinations of representative food clusters and toxidromes (i.e., a group of chemicals resulting in similar human health effects and requiring similar medical treatments). Quantitative mathematical models were then constructed for exemplar foods within each cluster based on an extensive data gathering effort involving the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA), trade associations, and food industry. Model results were generated for a representative chemical within each toxidrome to reflect the food cluster-toxidrome combination. Simulations for each cluster-toxidrome combination were performed using current baseline capabilities, as well as alternate conditions to assess the impact on consequences of faster investigation timelines (e.g., the benefit of advanced, rapid diagnostics) and enhanced intervention compliance.
Results: Comparison of results for simulations indicate key areas where improved diagnostics, early warning systems based on public health data, public education programs, and the use of social media to spread information can significantly impact the potential human health consequence of foodborne contamination scenarios.
Significance: This presentation provides a clear example of how quantitative software tools, developed for the Department of Homeland Security, can fuel risk mitigation strategies to better protect the US homeland.