Identification of Steps within Nodes of the Food Supply Chain which Could Facilitate a Foodborne Terrorist Attack

Introduction: The Department of Homeland Security Chemical Security Analysis Center analyzes intentional contamination of the food supply as one of the six major targets in the Chemical Terrorism Risk Assessment. Identifying the points in the food supply at which a terror-inspired intentional contamination could affect the public health is the first step in mounting an effective yet rational defense. Within the many nodes that make up the supply chain, determining the likelihood of a successful mass contamination within a specific node is difficult.  To date there has been no freely available mechanism for assessing this likelihood based on agent characteristics, processing parameters and a numerical estimate of a motivated individual accessing the process.

Purpose: The purpose of this effort was to produce a tool which could be used by vetted Food & Agriculture Sector members to determine where within their process, the risk of an intentional contamination not only exists but exceeds a rational “threshold” of risk.

Methods: This work combines the industry perspective, where does unacceptable risk exist within a process, and the Government perspective, what harm could be done, into a science-based model which is intended to address needs at the facility and corporate levels of industry as well as the needs of those responsible for addressing public health concerns.

Results: The model evaluates the likelihood of a motivated aggressor being able to access the product and the likelihood agents will remain viable within the process to estimate the risk at each defined process step for each agent. Potential health effects of the intentional contamination at each process step are also estimated.

Significance: This effort will culminate in a downloadable tool accessible by stakeholders to analyze the risk within their specific nodes, focusing mitigation strategies where they are most needed, thus reducing risk and bolstering food defense.