Purpose: The objective of this study was to estimate the risk of Campylobacter spp. on various jerky in S. Korea.
Methods: For exposure assessment, the prevalence of Campylobacter spp. in beef and poultry jerky were investigated by plating the samples on modified CCDA-Preston. Distribution temperature and time for jerky were also surveyed. To predict the fate of the pathogen in the jerky under the distribution and storage conditions, the developed predictive models were cited. Consumption amount and frequency for the jerky were obtained by a survey. Campylobacter prevalence, distribution temperature, distribution time, consumption amount, and consumption frequency data were fitted to @RISK fitting program to obtain appropriate probabilistic distributions. Dose-response models for Campylobacter were searched through literatures. Eventually, a simulation model with @RISK were developed using collected data to estimate the risk of Campylobacter foodborne illness by intake of jerky.
Results: Of 250 jerky samples, there were no positive samples, and thus, initial contamination level was statistically predicted with RiskUniform distribution. The developed predictive models with Weibull model (primary model) and Cubic model (secondary model) were cited. Mean for jerky consumption amount was 51.833 g/day (BetaGeneral distribution) with 0.61% of frequency. The developed simulation model with all probabilistic distributions, predictive model, and dose-response model (Beta Poisson model) showed that the risk of Campylobacter foodborne illness per day per person was 8.53 × 10-10 for jerky.
Significance: These results suggest that risk of Campylobacter spp. in jerky could be considered low in S. Korea.