Factors to Consider in Decision Making Given Variability and Uncertainty in Microbiological Risk Assessment: A Governmental Perspective

Dealing with hazards and risks is an important part of the Food Standards Agency’s work and the approach taken to microbiological risk assessment will depend on the scale, complexity and urgency of the situation. Variability and uncertainty are key factors in microbiological risk assessment and understanding their nature, magnitude and impact are important for both risk assessors and risk managers. Risk assessment outputs can be particularly challenging for risk managers when faced with difficult or uncertain risk management options.  Interaction and clarity between risk assessors and risk managers is important in both framing the risk assessment question and beginning preparation for dealing with the risk assessment outputs.  Even during the early stages it is important to recognise whether there are any limitations for example, where  preliminary scoping activities are undertaken (e.g. data gaps, data quality, spatial or temporal alignment of information) as these could have implications for the assessment including variability and uncertainty.  The emergence of new microbiological hazards, methodology, more complex and diverse foods as well as consumer behaviour will continue to challenge our ability to assess and manage the attendant variability and uncertainty associated with risk assessments and how we compare and communicate risks to consumers.