Purpose: The purpose of this study was to assess the risk of salmonellosis associated with the consumption of minimally processed frozen pre-cooked pancakes using both laboratory data and QMRA mathematical models.
Methods: Pancake batter samples were inoculated with Salmonella spp. cocktails to ~108 CFU/g. Samples were treated at 160, 165, 170 or 175°F and from 0 to 60 seconds in a pre-heated water bath. The cooking methodology mimicked the final water activities of pancakes following cooking under commercial manufacturing conditions. The study was repeated 3 times and Salmonella were enumerated using scientifically valid methods. Data on pancake consumption and Salmonella prevalence and concentration on raw flour were based on data from published sources, internal company data or expert opinion. A QMRA model was developed using @Risk software.
Results: Cooking pancake batter to internal temperatures of 165 or 170°F reduced the average number of Salmonella-positive servings significantly (P < 0.05) compared to uncooked batter. Predicted salmonellosis cases from cooked pancakes were less than one per year when cooked to an internal temperature of 165°F. This number dropped by 10 fold compared to pancake batter cooked to an internal temperature of 170°F. The model estimates that a single salmonellosis case would occur about every 4.5 or 333 years when pancake batter cooked to internal temperatures of 165 or 170°F, respectively, based on a worse-case scenario (99th percentile), and the assumed parameters.
Significance: The quantitative risk analysis estimations indicate that the risk of salmonellosis from properly cooked pancake batter (where “proper” is defined as an average internal temperatures of 176°F or above, and no longer a slurry and suitable for sale) is extremely low.