Purpose: The outcome of the model gives the distribution of exposure to AOH and AME due to the consumption of derived tomato products for the Belgian population, exemplifying the European consumers, and its relation to different climate change scenarios.
Methods: A full risk assessment research was conducted and @Risk Software was applied to perform Monte Carlo simulations.
Results: The hot break production process resulted in a lower exposure compared with the cold break procedure due to the effect of the heating on the stability of the mycotoxins. The calculated mean exposure for AOH was 0.004 µg/kg BW.day residing in the range reported by EFSA between 0.0036 to 0.026 µg/kg BW.day (lower bound-upper bound; EFSA, 2011). For AME, a higher mean exposure was calculated compared to AOH, being 0.008 µg/kg BW.day and following EFSA calculations of 0.01 to 0.063 µg/kg BW.day (lower bound-upper bound). Several climate change scenarios were evaluated that impact the pre-harvest mold growth and potential mycotoxin production. These show that in extreme RPC scenarios (6.0 and 8.5 in Spain), which result in an increase in temperature (18.2 to 38.2°C), the exposure will be lower due to temperatures that are too high for the growth of Alternaria molds. Simulations also demonstrated that Poland will shift in the far future (2081 to 2100) to the present situation of Spain (1981 to 2000) with temperatures of 14.1 to 28.4°C.
Significance: This paper emphasizes the importance of preventive measures at fields to avoid the prevalence of Alternaria molds and sorting the moulded tomatoes out before entering the production line of derived tomato products.