Influence of Bacterial Foodborne Diseases in South Korea by Climatic Factors

Introduction: Climate change may have both direct and indirect impact on the food safety at various stages of the food chain. Especially bacterial foodborne disease were confirmed as one of major impact parts due to climate change by the results of previous studies in Korea. Nevertheless the correlation between conditions of climate change and outbreak of foodborne disease is still poorly understood. Therefore, the reliable estimate on the impact were very important to develop the strategy on adaptation to climate change for food safety in Korea.

Purpose: Therefore, the aim of the study was to investigate the relationship between bacterial foodborne pathogens (BFP) and climatic conditions in Korea, and then to establish a simulation model, based on QMRA (Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment), that can be used to estimate the prospective impact of climate change on food safety.

Methods: To select climatic sesitive BFP, correlation analysis identifying the relationship between 8 climatic variables and 13 BFP in Korea during the period 2002-2013 were conducted with SPSS Ver. 12 (Data Solution). Climatic and epidemiological data on FBDOs were obtained from the KMA (Korea Metrological Administration) and the KMFDS (Korean Ministry of Food and Drug Safety), respectively. Also, the future incidence trend of FBDOs due to climate change in Korea were predicted by QMRA simulation model, developed using national monitoring data and meta analysis (review manager Ver 5.1 (RevMan) in this study, combining new climate change (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) scenarios produced in KMA based on the RCP scenarios.

Results: The results of correlation analysis shown that Vibrio parahaemolyticus (VP) had the highest positive correlation coefficient with climatic variables, followed by Campylobacter spp., Pathogenic E. coli (EHEC), and Salmonella spp (SA). The incidence rates of FBDOs due to the 4 identified pathogens are shown in relation to mean monthly temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation. QMRA simulation model estimated the incidence rate of BFD caused by 4 pathogens in 2050 and 2100 will be higher from 5.7% (SA in 2050 under RCP 4.5) to 114.6% (VP in 2100 under RCP 8.5) than the present.The Incidence rate of BFD caused by 4 pathogens in the future will be increased from 5.7% (SA in 2050 under RCP 4.5) to 114.6% (VP in 2100 under RCP 8.5)

Significance: The study was significant for the development of QMRA simulation model as a useful tool on food safety to strengthening its capacity to be proactive in addressing threats to food safety to a changing climate. And results of the study will be assisted the development of the strategy on adaptation to climate change for food safety management, and build up the national adaptation capacity on food safety in Korea.

Acknowledgment: This research in conducted within Korean Ministry of Food and Drug Safety (KMFDS) project "System development for food safety management to support adaptation to climate change".