Purpose: This research aims to develop a predictive model of behavior of Staphylococcus aureus for the quantitative microbial risk assessment and to establish a scenario including consumption amount, frequency and dose response model for simulation.
Methods: For developing growth prediction models, five processed meat products, gamja-tang, galbi-tang, samgye-tang, gom-tang, and pyeonyuk, were inoculated with the initial level of 103 CFU/g and the growth was monitored at different time and temperature points to establish the primary and secondary predictive growth model. More than 1,600 processed meat samples were collected from all region of Korea and tested for the contamination of S. aureus.
Results: Among 1,695 processed meat products tested for microbial contamination, only three samples were confirmed S. aureus contamination. A model for microbial growth prediction in processed meat products was successfully developed based on the renowned “Baranyi model” and “Square root model.” As a result of simulation, the possibility of foodborne outbreak caused by S. aureus in processed meats was very low, suggesting the risk level of S. aureus in processed meats was very low under current zero-tolerant “Korea Food Code Standard.” The most prominent factors that affect to the simulation result were types of meat products and frequency of intake, followed by initial contamination level, storing temperature.
Significance: This research are to review the possibility of establishing scientific standards and seek the advancement in the production of domestic food products by conducting a quantitative microbial risk assessment in processed meat products of which the consumption has been rapidly increasing.