Purpose: We present projections on changes in climatic patterns and the associated complex and dynamic changes in aflatoxin contamination in different regions of Kenya, where the problem of aflatoxin contamination in cereal crops is endemic.
Methods: The risk attributable to consumption of contaminated maize and groundnuts was assessed. Bayesian statistics provided a unified probabilistic approach for handling uncertainty and variability. The enhancement of the risk by prior hepatitis B virus diagnosis in aflatoxin exposed individuals was, also, assessed.
Results: Contaminated maize and groundnuts contributed additively to the risk of aflatoxin associated HCC cases of greater than 2,000 cases per annum. Changes in climatic patterns (rains and temperatures) enhance this risk, differently, from region to region. Regions previously associated with lower aflatoxin contamination levels such as central and western regions will experience an increase in risk. However, decreased HCC risk is projected in eastern and southern regions regions, which currently experience higher cases of aflatoxicosis. Several management practices including agronomic, postharvest, and biologic measures show high potential in mitigating the risk, especially when applied in combination.
Significance: Climatic changes will, albeit differently, enhance foodborne HCC risk. Both the risk and potential mitigation measures are suggested.