Purpose: The purpose of this study was to introduce the Food Handling Practices Model (FHPM), its assumptions, and applications.
Methods: The FHPM is a quantitative model that tracks servings of food (1,127,245,021,184 annually) as they go through various stages leading to noticeable foodborne illness. The model consists of 1,546 parameters and assumes interlinked binomial random variables. It runs Monte Carlo simulations based on inputted parameters, and estimates the number foodborne illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths associated with the specified parameters. Baseline and change scenarios are compared to assess the change in risk due to changes in food handling practices.
Results: Among many change scenarios presented, the top five contributing factors leading to foodborne illness at the retail level (household level) are: inappropriate behavior related to cooling (room temperature holding), thawing (thawing), cold holding (raw or lightly cooked food), advance preparation (cooking), and hot holding (cooling); with approximately 25,382 (268,093), 24,180 (212,115), 23,400 (208,241), 20,330 (194,313), and 19,771 (171,812) illnesses avoided annually per one percent reduction in incidence, respectively. Change scenario results can be inferred from each other because the model is linear and the results of most change scenarios are independent.
Significance: The FHPM is an important tool for analyzing risk associated with food handling practices at the retail and household level and can inform policy makers’ decisions relating to food safety interventions.