T10-12 Estimating Risk Attributed to Food-handling Behaviors in Retail and Households

Wednesday, July 12, 2017: 11:45 AM
Room 16 (Tampa Convention Center)
Ioana (Julia) Marasteanu , U.S. Food and Drug Administration , Silver Spring , MD
Girvin Liggans , U.S. Food and Drug Administration , College Park , MD
Jessica Otto , U.S. Food and Drug Administration , College Park , MD
Angela Lasher , U.S. Food and Drug Administration , College Park , MD
Introduction: The prevention of foodborne illness remains a significant priority to public health agencies in the United States. Given the prevalence of multiple contributing factors that can lead to foodborne illness at both the retail and household levels, it is important to understand how individual food handling practices combine to impact the incidence of foodborne illness.

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to introduce the Food Handling Practices Model (FHPM), its assumptions, and applications.

Methods: The FHPM is a quantitative model that tracks servings of food (1,127,245,021,184 annually) as they go through various stages leading to noticeable foodborne illness. The model consists of 1,546 parameters and assumes interlinked binomial random variables. It runs Monte Carlo simulations based on inputted parameters, and estimates the number foodborne illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths associated with the specified parameters. Baseline and change scenarios are compared to assess the change in risk due to changes in food handling practices.

Results: Among many change scenarios presented, the top five contributing factors leading to foodborne illness at the retail level (household level) are: inappropriate behavior related to cooling (room temperature holding), thawing (thawing), cold holding (raw or lightly cooked food), advance preparation (cooking), and hot holding (cooling); with approximately 25,382 (268,093), 24,180 (212,115), 23,400 (208,241), 20,330 (194,313), and 19,771 (171,812) illnesses avoided annually per one percent reduction in incidence, respectively. Change scenario results can be inferred from each other because the model is linear and the results of most change scenarios are independent.

Significance: The FHPM is an important tool for analyzing risk associated with food handling practices at the retail and household level and can inform policy makers’ decisions relating to food safety interventions.